Thursday, August 22, 2013

Is there still more downside for coffee?

Coffee continues to push lower as supply seems to be ever increasing.

Brazil enjoyed a record crop in 2013, supposedly an "off year," and next years crop is also looking large.

Recently there had been some concerns with potential frost damage to crops but those fears seem to have diminished.

The Brazilian real once again weakened on Wednesday, pushing to fresh lows against the USD, which hurt prices further.

Looking at the COT situation, it appears that there is still some room to move toward a further "net short," position, with managed money off the extreme levels at the moment.

I've been keeping an eye on the Dec13/Jul14 spread and really just waiting for a pullback to enter on. Unfortunately one hasn't really been forthcoming.

I'll keep watching and waiting...

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