Friday, August 9, 2013

A miss in natural gas storage

On the surface it appeared to be a huge miss in natural gas storage last night, when we saw a build of 96 BCF vs expectations of only 77 BCF.

However, the EIA reclassified its base gas as it normally does about once a year. The 96 BCF injection would have been a 82 BCF build prior to the reclassification.

As a result we saw natural gas initially sell-off quite heavily only to rebound.

Our spread also sold off but settled effectively unchanged.

Often times when we see a bearish number (albeit less so than first impressions) that doesn't follow through, it's a sign of a potential reversal.

I'm very tempted to take of half our position here - I certainly would if the injection came in at 96 BCF.

However given the state of the market, which is certrainly trending lower and the benign weather we seem to be having, I think the best course of action is to tighten the stop into 37 even and let this one ride.

We still have three weeks remaining in the seasonal window (2nd September) and given the current trend I think it's worth it letting play out. I am 50/50 here in should be noted.

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